Arab Spring three years on

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(CNN) — When a young Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire in December 2010, the desperate act fanned a flame that spread through the Arab world, threatening to burn down long-entrenched autocracies.

His death unleashed a wave of anger about poverty, unemployment and repression that built into nationwide protests across the Middle East and North Africa — in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya and Syria — that became known as the Arab Spring.

Millions of Arabs, living with limited job prospects or avenues for change, rose up, determined to reshape the political landscape of the Arab world.

And March 15 marks three years since mass protests erupted in Syria, now entangled in a devastating conflict.

Three years on, how are these nations faring? What successes can they boast — on democracy, economic progress, stability and women’s rights — and what challenges await?

Tunisia


Official: Constitution empowers Tunisia


Life in the aftermath of the Arab Spring

What’s happening? The small North African country is probably the closest the Arab world has to a model transition to democracy. Tunisia now has a technocratic administration — the second since President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia in January 2011 — a new constitution that has won praise for its inclusiveness and an electoral board in place. It also just lifted a three-year state of emergency.

What’s next? Islamist party Ennahda will compete for power this year with secular opponents at the ballot box — and not on the street — after months of political deadlock and then a rocky path to compromise. Ennahda had won elections in late 2011 and resigned recently under a compromise deal.

What’s key? Although compromise holds for now, problems still abound. Islamist militants threaten attacks, and there is widespread public resentment over unemployment, economic development and the high cost of living. Tunisia is heavily reliant on European tourism, which has fallen since its uprising, and remittances from expats for its foreign income. But it remains a rare bright spot in an unstable region.

Tunisia already boasted some of the most advanced women’s rights in the Arab world, and its new constitution guarantees gender equality in elected assemblies.

“Along with the relative or nonviolence in Tunisia and long history of women’s rights, (the) peaceful rise and fall of an Islamist party is what makes Tunisia the most promising face of the Arab Spring,” said David Pollock, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

READ: Tunisia lifts state of emergency

Egypt


Egyptian PM and cabinet resign

What’s happening? It’s been a tumultuous three years for Egypt, the largest of the Arab Spring nations. Since strongman Hosni Mubarak was forced out in 2011, Egypt has seen a democratically elected president take office and then be deposed in turn by the military after more mass protests. The military-backed interim government resigned last month, and a caretaker government is in place.

What’s next? The army, pushed behind the scenes under former President Mohamed Morsy of the Muslim Brotherhood, now wields more overt influence. Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who led Morsy’s ouster in July, is expected to announce that he will run for president of this polarized and divided nation.

The presidential elections are expected this spring. Observers question how free and fair they can be when major elements of the political spectrum are excluded by law.

What’s key? The Muslim Brotherhood — after a brief spell at the helm during which it was accused of pursuing an increasingly theocratic and autocratic agenda — is now banned as a terrorist organization. And efforts to redraft the constitution have been fraught with conflict, some deadly.

“Egypt has the means of recovering … but to do that, they will have to be inclusive; they will have to go back to politics,” said Larbi Sadiki, associate professor of international relations, democratization, at Qatar University.

While political divisions rage, the country has work to do on several fronts:

Economy: It’s in deep economic trouble, with huge unemployment. It has areas of potential, including tourism, a significant middle class and important strategic location, but these are not being realized. An energy crisis is expected to worsen by the summer and could fuel public anger. The overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood has, however, opened up economic support from oil-rich countries in the Gulf that oppose the movement.

Security: Instability and insecurity have affected tourism, limiting its potential for growth. Another alarming development has been the repression of protesters and government critics. More than 1,400 have been killed in political violence since July, Amnesty International says, “most of them due to excessive force used by security forces.”

Women’s rights: Little has been done to address persistent claims of sexual abuse against women, including “virginity tests” by security forces. “Levels of sexual violence and harassment have always been very high, not just in the streets but in the home as well,” said Rothna Begum of Human Rights Watch. “Unfortunately, no administration … has really taken steps to combat this terrible situation.”

READ: Report: Egypt’s army-backed government resigns

Yemen


2013: Covering Yemen

What’s happening? The autocratic reign of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh came to an end in 2012, a year after mass protests broke out. He was replaced by Abdurabu Hadi as part of an internationally supported political deal.

Although Yemenis have thrown off the old dictatorship, they’re still a long way from cementing unity and stability in their dirt-poor country.

Their problems are multilayered, Sadiki said. “They’ve got sectarian problems; they’ve got ethnic problems; they’ve got regional problems; they’ve got massive and severe economic problems.”

What’s next? Yemen has concluded a national dialogue, and while progress is slow, there are hopes that reforms will be implemented in a new constitution. “They are still a long way from anything that looks remotely democratic, but they are really trying,” Sadiki said.

Pollock said that Yemenis appear to value their fledgling democratic culture despite its flaws. “It hasn’t made any fundamental advances in development or stability, but they have opened up their political space in a way that was quite unthinkable a few years ago,” he said.

What’s key? Yemen remains plagued by poverty, tribal rivalries and division between north and south, as well as a serious shortage of water, a culture of gun trouble and widespread illiteracy.

Yemen’s women took to the streets in an unprecedented way as part of the protests that ultimately toppled Saleh, Begum said. During the national dialogue, women called for greater rights and protections, and for 18 to be the minimum age for marriage for girls. This is key to ending the problem of child marriage in Yemen, said Begum, which is linked to health issues and increased deaths in childbirth. Now, constitutional, legal and societal changes are needed to ensure that those reforms become daily reality.

READ: Rebels overrun tribal stronghold in Yemen

Bahrain


2011: A year of protests

What’s happening? A tiny Gulf archipelago of 1.7 million people, Bahrain has been in turmoil since police, assisted by invited armed forces from Saudi Arabia, crushed the original February 2011 uprising, which was spearheaded by majority Shiites seeking democratic reform and an end to alleged discrimination at the hands of the Sunni Muslim monarchy.

What’s next? The kingdom remains deeply divided, with persistent protests that ignite clashes with police, national dialogue at an impasse and sectarian distrust simmering. The standoff is played out in street protests almost daily.

The government denies any policy of marginalizing Shiites.

International rights groups have condemned Bahrain’s crackdown on demonstrations.

Bomb attacks have increased since last year, raising concern about further instability in the Western-allied kingdom where the U.S. 5th Fleet is based.

“The prospects for compromise, dialogue, reform, some kind of measure of democracy in Bahrain have gotten dimmer and dimmer over the past few years,” Pollock said. “I think what we have right now is stability by force and coercion.”

What’s key? Limited oil resources have forced the kingdom to rely on other forms of business, namely finance. But the political unrest has hurt Bahrain’s status as a regional financial hub while increasing pressure on the state budget.

Women in Bahrain are more active in political life than in many Gulf states, but experts say sectarianism is a barrier to rights.

READ: New law: Insult Bahrain’s king, get thrown in jail

Libya


Gadhafi’s son extradited to Libya

What’s happening? A country awash with weapons, Libya faces widespread lawlessness, with its new leaders struggling to control some of the militias that overthrew dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Only this week, Parliament voted Prime Minister Ali Zeidan out of office over his failure to stop rebels exporting oil independently, a brazen challenge to the vast desert nation’s fragile unity.

What’s next? Political infighting has repeatedly delayed the process for a new constitution. Reflecting the disillusion Libyans feel with the chaos, turnout to last month’s polls to elect an assembly to draft the constitution was poor.

The charter, which will be submitted to a popular referendum, will need to take into account political and tribal rivalries as well as calls for more autonomy in the east when deciding what political system Libya will adopt.

What’s key? Oil production, Libya’s economic lifeline, has slowed to a trickle since the summer as armed protesters have seized oil ports and fields to press political and financial demands.

Though women played a significant role in the uprising, they still find themselves at a disadvantage to men, and their participation in decision-making has remained low. The 60-member committee charged with drafting the constitution includes only six women, even though activists had campaigned for a 35% female quota. Meanwhile, restrictions on polygamy requiring a wife’s consent have been lifted, and the religious leadership has called for a ban on women marrying foreigners.

Addressing the United Nations Security Council recently, U.N. special envoy to Libya Tarek Mitri warned how political divisions continue to undermine the management of Libya’s bumpy transition. “Libya faces the risk of embarking on a new trajectory of unprecedented violence,” Mitri said.

READ: Ousted PM left Libya on way to ‘another European country’

Syria


Madeleine Albright, #WithSyria

What’s happening? It’s now three years since Bashar al-Assad’s regime forcefully cracked down on peaceful anti-government protesters, precipitating Syria’s bloody descent into civil war.

A splintered opposition continues to fight on the ground. A peace conference in January in Geneva, Switzerland, achieved next to nothing. Syria’s government continues to blame the violence on terrorists; the opposition says a transitional government must replace al-Assad. Neither will budge, and the prospects of peace, stability or democratic reform remain a distant dream.

What’s next? Al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, has nothing to lose by carrying on a fight in which so many people have died, Sadiki said. At the same time, the opposition lack unity and vision — and some crave power for themselves.

“Syria is really the worst possible outcome,” Pollock said. “It’s going backwards, and Assad is getting stronger, and the opposition is getting weaker. But that’s not going to bring an end to the civil war.”


2011: A year of protests

What’s key? The human cost of the prolonged conflict is staggering. The United Nations says that more than 100,000 people have died and more than 680,000 others have been wounded. At least 6.5 million have been internally displaced, and nearly 2.5 million people have fled to other countries. Women and girls have paid a huge cost, Begum said. They make up a large number of those displaced by fighting, and many, as vulnerable refugees, suffer sexual harassment and exploitation.

Syria’s economy, housing and infrastructure have been decimated by three years of war, Pollock said. Pockets of comfort remain for pro-regime elites, but elsewhere, hundreds of thousands of people are slowly starving. Syria’s legendarily entrepreneurial people could rebuild if they’re given a chance, but “tragically, the reality is the prospect of continuing savagery that will drive the economy deeper and deeper downward,” he said.

READ: UN Security Council passes Syria aid resolution

READ: Opinion: Why Gaza conflict risks wider war

READ: How unrest of Arab Spring sparked innovation and creativity

READ: Opinion: How America abandoned Egypt’s Arab Spring

CNN’s Reza Sayah and journalist Sarah Sirgany contributed to this report.


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